By Prof.dr. R. M. Lapré, Dr. J. P. Mackenbach (auth.)

In order to chart the best way for long term regulations within the box of public healthiness, the Dutch govt must have the very best perception into power destiny developments and the issues to which those may possibly provide upward push. It was once that allows you to compiling a couple of long-range reports that the autonomous steerage Committee on overall healthiness eventualities was once manage in 1983. In 1985 the steerage Committee appointed a board of specialists to behavior a long-range examine of "Accidents and traumatology" (traumatology being that point of medication considering the remedy of coincidence victims). In shut session with this board, the Institute of Public well-being and Social medication of the Erasmus collage Rotterdam conducted a situation learn, the result of that are in brief summarized lower than. 0.1 goals and procedure The examine had targets: To discover attainable "autonomous" advancements (in the feel of being self reliant of presidency intervention) within the box of injuries and the remedy of twist of fate sufferers. To specify the consequences of attainable coverage measures, with regards to either the prevention of injuries and enhancements within the deal with twist of fate sufferers. The examine used to be exploratory instead of predictive. It didn't transcend the yr 2000, because it used to be felt that the velocity of switch during this box governed out taking a look a lot additional than ten to 15 years ahead.

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Extra info for Accidents in the Year 2000: Accident and Traumatology Scenarios 1985–2000 Commissioned by the Steering Committee on Future Health Scenarios

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E. a family of approaches having in common that a group of experts are allowed to make their views known, which in turn allows them to modify their ideas in the light of the opinions and arguments of other group members. This range of techniques includes the "brain-storming" method, but also the more formalised, written procedure, the "De1phi" method. The Delphi method was chosen because many questions required quantitative answers, with a view to possible incorporation in the computer model. For this purpose a written survey is a more efficient way of collating information than group discussions.

Other measures, relating to pre-hospital and hospital care for accident victims have also been taken, such as improvement of the transport by ambulance, but there are no unambiguous indications of the effects of these measures on (for example) the case fatality of accidental injuries. In the area of traffic safety, in particular, there have been a considerable number of preventive measures. Those measures were in the first instance of an infrastructural nature, which may well have had an effect at an early stage, given that the accident risks of passenger car occupants have been declining for some time now.

Exposure accident risk case fatality probability of handicap use of health services. The experts were asked for their expectations about these variables under a number of different conditions: I. 5% per annum, and those socio-cultural, medical or technological developments the respondents thought most likely in this particular situation. IIa. A combination of minimal government intervention, high economic growth of 4% per annum, and the resulting socio-cultural, medical or technological developments.

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