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0949-1 Baumol 12/19/05 2:49 PM Page 29 the road and help create a vibrant market in (unlicensed) interference-avoiding devices. However, two basic problems beset such direct controls, rendering them less effective than tradable licenses as a way to limit interference. First, direct controls tend to be inefficient and costly, most immediately because they usually entail a one-size-fits-all approach: even within a single band of spectrum, an interference standard that is effective for one use or set of circumstances may be quite unsuited to another.
There is no doubt a good deal of substance to the assertions about the increased availability of spectrum capacity, a development that could not have been accurately foreseen in the first half of the twentieth century, when the current regime evolved. But there is no reason to believe that we have since that time become much better at prophecy. History provides abundant illustrations of almost bizarre misreadings of the future by experts in their fields. There is, of course, the famous tale of the director of the patent office who proposed 0949-1 Baumol 12/19/05 2:49 PM Page 44 that the office be terminated because the future did not offer the prospect of much further addition to the stock of technology.
5 Nevertheless, the exclusive nature of spectrum rights does not affect the basic function served by a market in tradable permits. By whatever name (below, we use the term “tradable license” regime), this basic approach is a relatively efficient and effective method of solving the externality problem associated with spec5. If spectrum interference were controlled through a market in spectrum emissions licenses, the analogy to tradable pollution-emissions licenses would be more direct. For an analysis of the potential for such a market, see De Vany and others (1969) and Minasian (1975).